The Proof Is in the Data: Rystad Energy Paper Finds That Fuel Sourcing Is Aviation’s Fastest Available Decarbonization Lever

A new analysis by Rystad Energy, produced in collaboration with Context Labs’ Kinertic platform, finds that jet fuel’s origin can cut lifecycle emissions by as much as the EU’s 2030 SAF mandate. It’s a lever airlines can pull today.

Aviation’s decarbonization path has largely been written around sustainable aviation fuel. SAF is central to that path for good reason, but its supply is constrained and its cost runs roughly double that of conventional jet fuel. That leaves a gap between what regulation requires and what fuel supply can deliver.

The whitepaper, produced with Context Labs’ Kinertic platform, asks what’s available in the meantime. The finding: the emission intensity of jet fuel already varies more, route to route, than the EU’s 2030 blending mandate would improve it. Rystad’s analysis of supply into Stockholm Arlanda found a spread of over 30 kg CO2e per barrel of oil equivalent across seven candidate refineries, six of which already beat the lifecycle intensity the mandate is designed to achieve. It’s the same story at Heathrow, JFK, and LAX, each with its own spread of refineries, some well below what regulation would require, some well above.

Most of that variation comes from the crude itself, not the refinery. The four largest crude grades traded globally differ by close to 50 kg CO2e per barrel before refining even starts, largely regardless of which refinery processes them. Refining adds a smaller, second layer on top. The upshot: a buyer picking among supply routes that already exist can match the emissions cut of a 6% SAF blend, without paying SAF’s premium or chasing its limited supply.

Seeing that variation takes tracing a barrel from well to wing: crude origin, transport, refinery, and the route into a given airport. Context Labs’ Kinertic platform did that tracing. It runs on Context Labs’ Asset Grade Data standard, which pulls IoT, operational, third-party, and certification data into one record and traces a product back through its suppliers. With that tracing, a buyer can find a lower-intensity route and buy it.

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